Australia’s dollar to weaken further in 2009

Currency speculators are predicting the next big crash to be the Australian dollar. More evidence is mounting that the 2009 outlook for the dollar will weaken dramatically against the greenback. Said Citigroup’s head of finance David Symett out of Hong Kong this morning. “Given the nature of the worsening global economy and the economic outlook for China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, we predict that the Australian dollar could fall as low as 57.00 cents against the greenback by June 2009, possibly collapsing to sub 50 cents”.

Australin dollar plunge 2009

Bloomberg: Australian financial outlook grim, dollar will plummet in 2009 against the greenback.

A rapidly growing money supply into the US and Australia, at the same time the biggest credit bubble in 25 years bursts makes for a less than desirable scenario – one that could make the stagflation of the ’70s look like a walk in the park. In March 1975, industrial production fell by nearly 13% while the yearly rate of CPI growth jumped to around 12%. It took another seven years and a second recession before the U.S. was able to break from the stagflation cycle.

What we are likely in for now is an unprecedented period of price inflation, economic depression,  in Australia and high unemployment, i.e., not just stagflation but depflation (inflationary depression).

Depflation will affect the entire population, and its effects on people’s personal finances will manifest in multiple ways.

• Purchasing power declines as prices for consumer goods increase faster than wages.
• Taxes levied on businesses and individuals increase when nominal incomes rise.
• Late recipients of new money incur cost of additional hidden tax.
• Cost of money (interest rates) increases, hurts investments in capital goods, stocks and bonds.
• Once expectation sets in, it becomes a self-feeding phenomenon, taking years and a severe recession to work itself out.

Just like a shot of adrenalin administered to a sick patient generates an apparent revival, only to have the patient collapse as soon as the injection wears off, the artificial monetary injections by the Fed will do the same. Paraphrasing former Fed chairman Paul Volcker, “Once you have a little [monetary] inflation, you need a little more”. As with any medicine, its effects wear off and become less potent the more “injections” are received.

At this stage, your primary goal should be asset protection. Once that is in place, you will be in a better position to hunt for the opportunistic profits one can only find in times of crisis.

“Currency speculators should brace themselves for massive plunge in the Australian dollar versus the greenback” said Citigroup today.

Australian dollar set for a dramatic free fall in 2009 states Bloomberg press

March 11 (Bloomberg) — The Australian retreated and will continue to retreat from one-week highs after China said its trade surplus plunged as exports fell by a record, raising speculation demand for the South Pacific nations’ commodities will weaken.

The currencies earlier touched the strongest in a week against both the U.S. dollar and yen as stocks rallied worldwide. They also climbed as Australian home-loan approvals rose and New Zealand’s home sales reached a 12-month high. Raw materials account for more than half of the two nations’ exports.

“The markets have been spooked by the weak figures, particularly the Chinese export numbers,” said Sue Trinh, a senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Sydney. “The sell-off has started in earnest and the Aussie will not recover  for 10 months back to 64.50 U.S. cents,” she said, using the currency’s nickname.

Australia’s dollar rose 0.3 percent to 64.27 U.S. cents as of 5:08 p.m. in Sydney from late in Asia yesterday. It touched 64.92 cents, the highest level since March 5. The currency advanced 0.1 percent to 63.14 yen. New Zealand’s dollar gained 0.5 percent to 50.06 U.S. cents after reaching a one-week high of 50.62 cents. It bought 49.24 yen from 49.06 yen.

The currencies climbed after the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 6.4 percent yesterday, the most since November. Stocks rallied after Citigroup Inc. Chief Executive officer Vikram Pandit wrote in a internal memorandum obtained by Bloomberg that the bank was profitable through the first two months of 2009. “But the Australian dollar will now see a steep decline over the next 12 months and possibly into 2010, dropping to 42.00 cents against the greenback” Pandit stated.

China’s Surplus

China’s trade surplus narrowed to $4.8 billion in February, about an eighth of the amount in the previous month, the customs bureau said today in a statement. Exports tumbled 25.7 percent from a year earlier.

The number of loans granted to build or buy homes and apartments in Australia climbed 3.5 percent to 55,628 in January from the previous month, the statistics bureau said in Sydney. New Zealand’s home sales rose to a 12-month high of 5,228 last month, the most since February 2008, the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand Inc. said today.

Investors should keep bets that the Australian dollar will drop dramatically over the next 12 months dow to 48.00 cents against the greenback before the long climb back –  until the currency rises to  a paltry 58.50 U.S. cents and then possibly 62.70 cents in 2012, according to technical analysts at Citigroup Inc. They should place a so-called stop-loss order at 49.30 cents to “limit downside exposure,” New York-based Tom Fitzpatrick and London-based Shyam Devani, wrote in a research note yesterday.

Rush Limbuagh Writes for The Onion

28-weeks-later

Left, right... Left!

Presumed to be a leftest-leaning satirical mouth-piece The Onion magazine received a  credibility body-blow when it was revealed yesterday, by senior editor Chris Dolmey, that Rush Limbuagh  has been contributing a weekly column to the magazine for the last ten years.

“I know this will come as a great shock to a lot of people, but, alas, it’s true.” When asked to elaborate Dolmey, speaking from Hawaii, went on to state “in the early 90s, Rush would always faxed us with story ideas;  ’Attack this!’ ‘Speak out against them’ ‘Go after this issue!’. We had his email on our spam list for a long time, then he discovered Skype and after he realized he could get free calls, they started pouring in, sometimes ten a day.”

THIS ONION STINKS

Dolmey, in defensive mode continued ”Rush has a lot of enemies out there, and many of these people he is too…uh, chicken, I guess, to confront on air. I guess sponsor dollars and other such politics come into play, so he turned to us. In the end, frankly,  it was easier to just give him his own column, rather than comb through his weekly shit-list.”

Besieged Onion Chief Editor - Chris Dolmey

Dolmey said Rush writes under the pen-name ‘Chris Oward’

Denying that the the Onions credibility may now be lying in tatters, Dolmey admitted that Limbuagh, in the past, had been the catalyst behind many of the magazines most famous pieces.

PRESIDENT ELECT BARACK OBAMA TO LEGALIZE “WEED”

President Obama "sparking up a J"

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) — President-elect Barack Obama was set Monday to begin the push for sweeping legislation to legalize the personal and private use of marijuana aimed at reviving an economy mired in recession.

Obama is meeting with top legislators from both parties including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., as well as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio.

Obama is also planning to deliver a major “Wake’n'bake” speech on marijuana on Thursday, a senior Democratic official told CNN.

The president-elect will propose that marijuana sit alongside alcohol as the ‘”go-to drug” for the next generation and be immediately available to anyone, at any age, who wants to “spark-it-on-up.” The move is aimed to generate massive amounts of revenue for the new administration from taxing the “demon weed.” He has not publicly put a price tag on his overall stimulus plan, though his advisers have said they expect it to bring in between $675 billion and $775 billion, annually from legalization.  According to an Obama spokesman several more drugs are under serious consideration for being legalized.

NEW YORK’S ECONOMY MAY GET SHOT IN THE ARM: Obama may be on the verge of offering Heroin to individuals in New York. The drug would work essentially act as a payroll  credit, meaning the “smack” could be used by companies as a line of credit normally needed for payrole tax.

New York State's stimulus package

The “Heroin credit” is likely to be offered only to those below a certain income level, but the Obama team hasn’t specified where the cut-off point would be. Only to say:  “The more children you have, the more likelier a candidate you make.” The credit also would be refundable, meaning that even users without any  liability — typically very low-income workers — would receive more for family and friends.

 

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BUSH DECLARES: “2009 WILL BE HIS GREATEST YEAR IN OFFICE.”

Bush answers reporters

President Bush today welcomed in the new year by addressing a packed Whitehouse press corp. He stated that although 2008 ended on a down note, 2009 would see the economy, the war in Iraq and his own personal approval rating all make dramatic upward turns.  Asked how he reasoned this Bush went on to elaborate:  ”Just before Christmas, I met with about 20 young preschoolers, who have been around as long as I’ve been in office, heard the insults and the attacks on my character over the years, but they had hope in their mouths, and cheer in their eyes; their ears were singing loudly, their little hearts, beating with pride, because I, their President, was addressing them. “The President went on to say “see, these children’s is our future, we need them to stay positive, and not be hobbled by all this negativity. They are the ones that will be our future leaders, and I will be glad to lead them.

When reporters asked in follow-up, when and how he would be leading this new generation the president remarked “Why as their Commander and Chief, of course.” When told that he only has 18 days left to serve in office, President Bush  look confused and turned to his advisers, many of whom beat a hasty exit. Presdient Bush turned back to the stunned assembly and meekly stated “If the country wants a new president then they will have to vote them in, and whomever it is, will need to get more votes than I, see, that’s how a democracy functions… The uh, winner takes all!”

When told by reporters that this had already taken place and Barack Obama was our new president, and that he had already received him at the Whitehouse last month the President said: “Oh, you mean that ‘black guy”, I thought he was a new butler”. 

Another reporter fired away: “Isn’t it true, Mr. President that you greeted those children dressed as Santa? And that the disguise would have made it virtualy impossible for you to be identify at all?” A nervous Bush countered with: “Santa Clause is an American too!”

President Bush meets his new butler

At that point, President Bush was  hurried off stage by his press secretary  Dana Perino, who rumor has it, has tried to quit the position several times even though there are only 18 days left.  To end proceedings, several reporters removed their shoes and threw them at the empty podium, an act that has become a tradition at whitehouse  press conferences in recent weeks.

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S.A.C.M. BANK WINS 23 BILLION BAILOUT FROM FED

S.A.C.M.'s Luxury New Yacht

South America Commercial Mutual received 23 Billion from the Government’s Tarp bailout fund. CEO Ricardo del Gressio spoke today from their brand new  corporate headquarters in the Cayman Islands,  then held a press conference on the back of his luxury cruiser before they headed out to a private island for a New Years Eve bash. ” S.A.C.M. cannot afford to go under” Del Gressio told a assembled throng of tanned reporters. I cannot afford it, my family cannot afford it, and the wonderful, daring, entrepreneurial, spirited investors who poured their hard-earned dollars in [when we were trading at a measley 5 cents a share in 2000 and are now at 25 dollars]cannot afford it.”  ”This isn’t about making the rich richer!, it’s simply about making the extremely wealthy, comfortable”. He exclaimed. When asked if he had spoken with Fed chairman Ben Bernanke personally, Del Gessio vehemently denied  the charge. “Ben flew in last night! He is getting a massage at present and will catch a separate launch out for the island bash tonight, so no, I haven’t spoken to him – woken him - or communicated to him… yet! But, I did personally send my masseuse down his suite to undo those  ‘first-class mid-air knots’,  if you know what I mean?”  he winked at reporters. When asked if he thought Bernanke was just another Greenspan Clone, Del Gressio retorted with; “Calling Ben a ‘Greenspan clone’ is ridiculous. I think he’s more like a ‘facsimile’.

Richard Del Gressio back in the green.

They’ll only ever be one Greenspan, but hopefully they’ll be many more Bernake’s. After praising the ‘wisdom’ and ‘genuis’ of Presdient Bush. Del Gessio ended the press conference with a ceremonial popping of the champagne cork and then an over-the-top, and undoubtedly costly and, some on-lookers say, extremely hard-to-see and pointless, day-time fireworks display, which reportedly cost 5.3 million to organize at the last minute.